الذكاء الاصطناعي يهدد الدولة الحديثة.. هل تدخل الحكومات عصر أزمة ضريبية؟

Hespress Economy Artificial intelligence threatens the modern state.. Are governments entering an era of tax crisis? Photo: AFP Hespress from Rabat Sunday, July 19, 2026 - 03:00 While the world is preoccupied with discussions about the potential risks of artificial intelligence, from job loss to machine dominance over some aspects of life, a growing number of economists believe that the greatest threat may not be the technology itself, but its ability to undermine one of the most important sources of funding for modern states, which is income tax. A report published by Bloomberg warns that governments that have built their financial systems on taxing workers and wages may find themselves facing an unprecedented crisis if artificial intelligence succeeds in replacing large numbers of employees with machines over the next few years, a scenario that could threaten the stability of public finances and reshape the global economy. The report is based on a closed meeting held by the International Monetary Fund at its headquarters in Washington during December, in which 50 experts in economics and technology from prominent institutions participated, including Google DeepMind, the Rand Corporation, and the US Federal Reserve. The participants discussed, under the Chatham House rule, which prohibits attributing opinions to their authors, the possible scenarios for the impact of artificial intelligence on tax systems, government spending, and economic growth. The main question was not whether technology would change the labor market, but how governments would be able to fund themselves if the number of taxpayers among workers decreased. The report indicates that modern states have relied since the first industrial revolution on taxing wages and individual incomes, after millions of people moved from agriculture to paid work, and governments have become heavily dependent on these revenues to fund public services. Data from the Rand Corporation shows that about 66% of US federal revenues in 2024 came from income taxes or taxes directly related to wages, while individual income tax in Australia accounts for about half of government revenues, making any widespread decline in employment a direct threat to the financial stability of states. Although artificial intelligence is still in its early stages of dissemination, signs of transformation have already begun to appear within sectors that rely on office jobs. Major financial and technological institutions have announced plans to take advantage of smart systems to perform tasks that were previously done by employees. A study conducted by the company Anthropic found that programming, which until recently was considered one of the safest professions, has become one of the most vulnerable to artificial intelligence, a shift that affects high-paying jobs, meaning that the loss of even a limited number of them could lead to a significant decline in government tax revenues. The report warns that the problem lies not only in rising unemployment rates but also in the decline in public revenues at the same time as increased government spending. States will find themselves required to fund unemployment benefits, vocational retraining programs, social services, and security services at a time when their financial resources are shrinking, a situation that could lead to years of economic pressure and political instability, and perhaps even threaten the ability of some governments to perform their basic functions. The report recalls the experience of the Industrial Revolution in Europe, explaining that major economic transformations did not automatically lead to improved living conditions for the population. The first decades of the 19th century saw an increase in productivity, while wages remained stagnant and living conditions deteriorated for many workers, a period described by economic historian Robert Allen as the "Engels' pause", named after the thinker Frederick Engels. This was followed by years of social unrest and revolutions that swept across Europe in 1848. The report believes that the world may face a similar phase if the rapid spread of artificial intelligence precedes the ability of societies to adapt to it. Singaporean Minister of State Alvin Tan, quoted in the report, confirms that this issue represents one of the most important challenges facing governments today.